图析宁波电视收视格局

文章对宁波的电视收视总体格局、晚间时段各电视频道的竞争态势,以及电视剧在宁波的收视情况作了由总及分的探讨和分析,将数据做成图表的形式形象、科学地解构了宁波电视的收视格局,对了解宁波电视收视情况和促进各台竞争提供了实际的参考价值.     

Robustness of alternative non‐linearity tests for SETAR models

In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non‐linear structure of self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR‐type non‐linearities in an observed time series. It is important to study the power and robustness properties of these tests since erroneous test results might lead to misspecified prediction problems. In this paper we investigate the robustness properties of several commonly used non‐linearity tests. Both the robustness with respect to outlying observations and the robustness with respect to model specification are considered. The power comparison of these testing procedures is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that all of the existing tests are not robust to outliers and model misspecification. Finally, an empirical application applies the statistical tests to stock market returns of the four little dragons (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) in East Asia. The non‐linearity tests fail to provide consistent conclusions most of the time. The results in this article stress the need for a more robust test for SETAR‐type non‐linearity in time series analysis and forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

第二类三分子模型的球对称不稳定性

本文采用Hopf分岔理论对第二类三分子模型进行了详细的研究。结果表明,在固定边界条件下,自振荡不稳定性只能出现在稀释过程中。此外,本文还给出了时间周期解的解析表达式。     

动态规划确定化学反应器序列最小占用时间的方法

通过用动态规划给出化学反应器序列最小占用时间的设计方法,提出了一个过程的最优化输出设计,该设计在输出产品浓度给定的条件下建立问题的基本设计量和数学模型,利用动态规划原则确定各阶段的占用时间,使总的占用时间为最小值,能够合理的确定各阶段反应器的体积以取得较好的经济效应.图3,表1,参8.     

具有时滞的非自治的Lotka-Volterra生态系统的全局稳定性

考虑一个具有时滞的非自治的捕食——食饵生态系统。该系统是由一个捕食，二个食饵种群所构成我们给出了系统的周期解是全局稳定的充分条件。     

新时期体育教学与运动训练异同性的再研究

新时期是知识经济的时代。本文结合新世纪初的时代背景特征，从体育教学和运动训练的目的任务、实施内容、实施方法、发展趋势等方面进行异同性的比较研究，旨在对21世纪初的体育教学和运动训练重新认识和定位，为体育工作者提供参考。     

蚕沙提取果胶水解环境研究

果胶的提取率和质量与水解的环境关系密切 .本文重点在蚕沙中提取果胶从产率和颜色方面对水解的环境进行一些定性和定量的研究 ,获知各水解介质采用 0 3 %的稀硫酸液、温度 70— 80℃ ,时间 1h、pH1 5 ,提取的果胶从质量和产率上较理想     

网络计划技术在工程进度计划管理中的应用

以某住宅楼的进度计划管理为例，从网络计划法的特点，编制，优化和动态调整等几个方面，阐述了网络计划技术在工程进度计划管理中的应用。     

The problem of time's arrow historico-critically reexamined

Responding to Hasok Chang's vision of the history and philosophy of science (HPS) as the continuation of science by other means, I illustrate the methods of HPS and their utility through a historico-critical examination of the problem of “time's arrow”, that is to say, the problem posed by the claim by Boltzmann and others that the temporal asymmetry of many physical processes and indeed the very possibility of identifying each of the two directions we distinguish in time must have a ground in the laws of nature. I claim that this problem has proved intractable chiefly because the standard mathematical representation of time employed in the formulation of the laws of nature “forgets” one of the connotations of the word ‘time’ as it is used in ordinary language and in experimental physics.     

High precision topographic data on Lop Nor basin's Lake "Great Ear" ? and the timing of its becoming a dry salt lake

High precision elevation measurements using DGPS were carried out along three representative tran- sects for the "Great Ear" area, a dry salt lake within the Lop Nor basin. Results indicate that the Lop Nor basin is only 5.2 m deep and its lowest point occurs at the center of the "Great Ear". In addition, the basin is asymmetric - steeper in the southwest (0.19‰) and gentler in the northeast (0.09‰). Points along the same "Great Ear" ring were found to have an identical elevation value, but different when from different ones (lower towards the center). The spacing of the "Great Ear" rings was found to be closely related with the surface steepness. The closer the "Great Ear" rings are spaced, the steeper the ground surface, and vice versa. These findings support the argument that the "Great Ear" rings are the former shoreline trails left behind by Lop Nor water during the last few episodes of recession towards its total dry up. A comprehensive analysis of the high precision elevation data, historical accounts, aerial and satellite photographs and imagery, and official topographic maps of the study area suggests that the "Great Ear" area in the Lop Nor basin was incorrectly mapped as being covered by a great body of water on the 1963 topographic maps. A re-interpretation of the 1958 aerial photographs and newer remote sensing imagery indicated that the "Great Ear" ring structure was already in place in 1958 and it continued to appear on the subsequent remote sensing data without any major changes. It is estimated that lake water in the "Great Ear" area of the Lop Nor basin disappeared between the late 1930s and early 1940s.